The Workshop

Tuesday June 10, 2008

Market share forecasting in pharma

Led by:
Dr. Robert Carbone and Walter Colasante
Futurion
www.futurcast.com

Get to the bottom of improving forecasting capabilities throughout the lifecycle of a pharmaceutical product. In this unique workshop you will get the opportunity to join other like-minded individuals seeking to reduce the level of in accurate forecasts across their portfolio of products. This intimate setting will allow you to ask questions and share your own forecasting challenges and successes.

Fundamentals of market share forecasting

• Methodology
  
• Epidemiology versus in-market
  
• Needs over the life cycle
  
• Activities
  
• Tools and database

• Toolbox and selecting the best method
  
• Extrapolating TRx versus ex-factory
  
• Filtering data
  
• Capturing the seasonality

• Market definitions and key parameters (TRx/DOT/price per DOT and more)
  
• Deriving ex-factory sales
  
• The concepts of baseline and to-and-from assumptions
  
• ARB case study

• Population, disease and product trees
  
• Prevalence versus incidence
  
• Computing market patients for defined segments
  
• Allocating patients to products by segment
  
• Model validation

• Generating the segmented market share baseline forecasts
  
• Market, patient share and product assumptions
  
• Diabetes case study

Dr. Robert Carbone received his doctorate from Carnegie-Mellon University. He co-developed the Carbone-Longini AEP filter which contributed to the application of adaptive filtering methods. He has guided the development of the FUTURCAST system. Dr. Carbone has made the academic tradition of research and development a hallmark at Futurion.