How can these principles be applied for different local market dynamics and data availability?
Presenting a US case study in an Excel free environment
09:50
Sanjeev Ganatra Manager
Sales and Marketing ISTA Pharmaceuticals
Driving home the importance of getting the forecast right
Short term versus long term accuracy: more than just a matter of time
Establishing the forecast process
Creating and communicating accurate forecasts
10:30
Morning refreshments
11:00
Zhen Tang Senior Manager Forecasting Amgen
360 degree forecasting in a complex and dynamic pharmaceutical market
Developing the right assumptions
Overcoming organizational biases
Using data and forecasting techniques effectively
Understanding uncertainty in the forecast and the risks to business decisions
11:40
Jeffrey Composto Director
Global Business Analysis Novartis Oncology
Forecasting with uncertainty in the competitive context
Accurately predicting competitors/substitutes at time of launch
Using competitive intelligence data as part of the forecast assumptions
Using patient flow models to measure competitiveness scenarios and influence in portfolio decisions
Case study: modeling commercial opportunities in oncology
12:20
Lunch
Assessing the availability of forecasting solutions in the industry
12:25
Gary Johnson Managing DirectorInpharmation
Pharma is different: the dangers of applying generic forecasting techniques to pharma forecasts
Moving away from standard forecasting techniques used by pharma companies: most were developed for other industries and operate in fundamentally different markets
Case studies: major errors caused by using off-the-shelf standard forecasting techniques in the pharma market
Examples of uptake curves, market share models and flow models
02:10
The panel will be made up of speakers from throughout the two days, who will discuss and debate the major topics and questions.
Comparing and contrasting forecasting for biologics with forecasting for small molecules
Identifying the competitive factors that are contributing to the growth of biologics
Explaining why the approval processes for biologics and small molecules differ - current and future trends
Preparing for the inevitable shift ahead
02:50
Afternoon refreshments
Pricing, regulations and the role of managed care
03:20
Dan Todd Senior Manager Reimbursement and Public Policy Amgen
Pricing and the role of regulatory authorities
Addressing regulatory effects on pricing and market access
Predicting the future role of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
Acknowledging the impact on share price and stakeholder perceptions
Discussing regulatory change and the reliability of current forecasts
Preparing for the future of forecasting in pharma
04:00
Jay Glasscott Senior Manager, Business Development Commercial Assessment Shire Pharmaceuticals
Case study: forecasting for licensing opportunities
Expanding to bring in new licensing and acquisition deals
Developing sales forecasts and commercial assessments to support both scouting and valuation activities
Given the early stage opportunities, is forecasting merely throwing darts or are there methodologies that bring robustness to projections?
Forecasting methodologies used to triangulate towards a better sales forecast
Explaining where forecasting helped us to define development and marketing plans for several newly licensed products
04:40
Closing remarks from the Chair and close of Day One
Day Two Thursday June 12, 2008
08:30
Registration
09:00
Joe Lawson Senior Manager, Forecasting Johnson & Johnson
Opening remarks from the Chair
09:10
ROUNDTABLE MORNING
Delegates will attend two one-hour roundtable discussion groups from a selection of key topics. Each session will be lead by an industry expert who will facilitate the exchange of opinions, essential experiences and learning relating to forecasting in pharma.
1.
The ins and outs of new product forecasting
Dag Welle Senior Manager
Strategic Business Analytics NicOx
2.
Centralizing forecasting processes
Peter Lena Director, Forecasting Sepracor
3.
Forecasting best practices
Dr. Kenneth Kahn Director
Avrum
Joyce Gray
Burton Morgan Center for Entrepreneurship and Purdue University
4.
Discussing and debating a key issue relating to forecasting in pharma (to be announced on the website before the event)
Martin Szostak Principal Global Forecasting and Opportunity Assessment IMS Health
5.
Understanding the current and future challenges the pharmaceutical environment: implications to forecasting
Dr. Thani Jambulingam
Chair and Associate Professor, Pharmaceutical Strategy & Marketing St. Joseph’s University
11:15
Morning refreshments
Pharma forecasting: an academic case-study
13:20
Peter Fader Professor, Marketing,
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Ka Lok Lee Ph.D. Candidate
The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania
Projecting patient persistence
How to set up a simple “persistence analysis” in a familiar spreadsheet environment
Developing a probability model to capture and project persistence patterns over time
Examining the diagnostics that emerge from such a model
Contrasting this approach to typical regression models
12:25
Lunch
Improving results with the use of best practice forecasting techniques
01:30
John Brown Senior Manager, Forecasting, Daiichi Sankyo
The adjuster: a home-grown visual basic application
Incorporating judgmental changes: an Excel spreadsheet enhanced with visual basic
Providing quick answers to the “what if” questions which forecasters are required to respond to
Self developed and customized to handle multiple in-line product forecasts: a forecasting one-stop tool
A live demonstration of its capabilities
02:10
Dag Welle Senior Manager
Strategic Business Analytics NicOx
The ins and outs of new product forecasting
Data considerations
Choosing the appropriate methodology
Refining your assumptions
Building your model
02:50
Afternoon refreshments
Unique perspectives on forecast challenges
03:30
Joe Lawson Senior Manger
Forecasting Johnson & Johnson
Forecasting in oncology
What is done differently?
Increasing the availability of data sources: accessing new data sources
Finding and implementing the right analysis tools
04:05
Dr. Kenneth Kahn
Director Avrum
Joyce Gray
Burton Morgan Center for Entrepreneurship and Purdue University
New product forecasting: cross industry approaches
Comparing what companies have done in the past with what is being done now
Choosing the right new product forecasting technique
Case studies from the consumer technology sector: lessons for pharma
04:40
Closing remarks from the Chair and end of conference
