The Programme

Day One – Tuesday 24th June 2008
08:30	Registration and coffee
09:00	Forecasting activities in an organisation
09:15	Fundamentals of market share forecasting
09:30	Operational vs. strategic forecasting
09:45	In-product market share forecasting in Europe The forecasting toolbox Review of quantitative and qualitative methodologies Understanding time series vs. causal methods
10:40	Morning refreshments and networking
11:00	Selecting the best statistical method to extrapolate in-market sales
11:30	Forecasting filtered data vs. raw data
11:45	Capturing seasonality in a forecast
12:15	Practical case study examples
13:15	Lunch
14:15	The European in-market product market share forecasting environment Structural design Volume and value market share architecture Market, product and share assumptions
14:45	The derivation of ex-factory sales forecasts
15:00	Dealing with parallel trade
15:20	Comparison to financial forecasts
15:30	Afternoon refreshments and networking
15:50	Forecasting hands-on session Hands-on experience with in-market product sales forecasting techniques (at the workshop, participants are encouraged to bring in-market sales data of their choice for forecasting)
17:50	Closing remarks and end of day one
Day Two - Wednesday 25th June 2008
08:30	Morning coffee
09:00	Strategic forecasting fundamentals
09:15	Why patient share forecasting
09:30	Developing a patient share forecasting model: the theory
10:40	Morning refreshments and networking
11:00	Practical applications of epidemiology-based modeling Setting population, disease and product trees for segmentation Generating treated patients by segments: prevalence vs. incidence Model validation
12:30	Lunch
13:30	Total market approach to epidemiological-based forecasting Computing segmented patient share baseline forecasts Defining market, patient share, product and pricing assumptions Working with up-take and erosion assumption impact curves
14:45	From patient-share to product and volume forecasts
15:00	Review of case studies
15:40	Afternoon refreshments and networking
16:00	Structuring the forecasting process in an organisation
16:15	Bridging operational and strategic forecasting
16:30	The forecasting KPIs
17:00	Concluding remarks
17:15	Close of workshop
About your workshop leader:
Dr Robert Carbone
	Dr Robert Carbone received his doctorate from Carnegie-Mellon University. He co-developed the Carbone-Longini AEP filter, which contributed to the application of adaptive filtering methods in forecasting. He has guided the development of the FUTURCAST system. A gold standard in the pharmaceutical industry, the system evolved from a PC application software to a fully integrated Assumption-based Oracle platform. Dr Carbone has made the academic tradition of research and development a hallmark at Futurion.
Walter Colasante
	Walter Colasante is a Senior Advisor to and Associate of Futurion Pharmaceutical Group. He has a background in medicine and also holds an MSc in biochemistry and an MBA. Before this, he spent over ten years in the pharmaceutical industry in clinical development, brand management, project management, disease management and strategic marketing of Bristol-Myers Squibb, Allergan, and Novartis.