The Workshop

Monday 17 November 2008

Excellence in Forecasting rests on two principals: the application of sound methodologies and the adherence to an effective and robust process. The scope of the workshop is twofold: to present the key elements which must be taken into account in the design of a forecasting process and to highlight how to best organize a forecasting function for a pharmaceutical company.

The workshop will provide participants with the ability to benchmark and evaluate the management of forecasting activities on their company in comparison to industry best practices.

Managing forecasting activities in a pharmaceutical company -
A best practice process workshop

FUTURION

• Forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry
• Differentiating characteristics of the Industry
• Impact of regulations
• Impact of product lifecycle
• Short, medium and long term requirements

The forecasting stakeholders: their needs and role

• Product development
• Supply chain
• Marketing and sales
• Finance

Key components of the forecasting process

• Forecasting engine
• Marketing collaboration
• Executive reporting
• Monitoring and control
• Integration in an Enterprise system, e.g. SAP, Axapta

Structuring the forecasting function

• Ad hoc versus process forecasting
• Selecting the right data
• The role of statistical extrapolation
• The role of assumptions
• Capturing and managing assumptions
• Creating a repository of data, forecasts and assumptions
• Where should the function reside?

Presenting the forecast to senior management

• How to focus on growth drivers and assumptions
• Type of graphics and their appropriate use
• Benchmarking and financial comparison

Forecast accuracy and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

• The pros and cons of various accuracy measures
• Short and long term measurements
• Safety stock computation

Practical examples and key success factors

• Reviewing  the activities of various companies
• Affiliates versus global organizations
• Supporting local and global S&OP
• Tool requirements

Dr. Robert Carbone received his doctorate from Carnegie-Mellon University.  He co-developed the Carbone-Longini AEP filter which contributed to the application of Adaptive Filtering methods in forecasting.  He founded ‘The International Institute of Forecasters’ with Dr. Scott A. Armstrong, Dr. Robert Fildes, and Dr. Spyros Makridakis.  He served for several years as editor of the Journal of Forecasting.  He co-developedthe Carbone-Makridakis forecasting system (CMFS) introduced in Management Science, Vol. 32, No. 3, 1986.

Dr. Carbone has been presiding over Futurion, a leading provider of forecasting technology and consultancy for more than 20 years.  In this venture, Dr. Carbone has been involved in the design and implementation of forecasting solutions and processes in hundreds of companies of all sizes, in all industries. More specifically in the pharmaceutical industry, he has assisted companies such as AstraZeneca, Amgen, Hoechst Roussel, Janssen, E. R. Squibb, Marion Merrell Dow, Novopharm, Bayer, SmithKline and French, Burroughs Wellcome, Glaxo, GSK, Syntex, Sterling Drugs, Sanofi Aventis, Ciba Geigy, Sandoz, Merck & Co., Boehringer Ingelheim, Ortho McNeil, Roche, Wyeth and Novartis in establishing effective forecasting processes.

Futurion provides enterprise forecasting solutions to pharmaceutical companies of all sizes. Currently, customers such as Boehringer-Ingelheim International and Novartis Pharma AG benefit from the worldwide implementation of FUTURCAST Oracle assumption-based forecasting methodology, which integrates a total market perspective. Futurion’s Haruspex is the first and only pipeline forecasting system available in a centralised Oracle environment. www.futurcast.com

Thursday 20 November 2008

One of the biggest challenges is to forecast revenues for a new product with limited data and resources.
This new product forecasting workshop is designed for pharmaceutical executives who have the responsibility of developing or reviewing forecasts. This course aims to provide participants with the concepts and tools required for a logical rationale-based forecast underpinned by principles of mathematics. The programme will provide an overview of the forecasting process and the trade-offs required between robustness of a model versus time or budget.
This is an introductory forecasting course for people involved within research-based pharmaceutical manufacturers, biotechs, and generic companies. You are either involved in new product forecasting or looking at somebody else’s forecasts for new product at headquarter level for global forecasts.

• Introduction and objectives of the course
• Objectives of delegates

• The role of forecasting
• Types of forecasting

Introduction to new product forecasting, Bass Diffusion and
market share curves

Rx-driven new product forecasting

Rafaat Rahmani is the president and founder of Lifescience Dynamics Ltd., with 22 years experience of working in the USA, the UK, the EU and the Middle East and has led over 200+ New Drug Forecasts for top 20 pharma and leading biotech companies. He has developed a number of proprietary techniques to incorporate market research and competitive intelligence data into long range forecasts. He has helped organisations with a variety strategic and operational issue.
He was Vice President of Double Helix Development, working on many different life science and healthcare consultancy assignments over the years. Previously he has also worked for Eli Lilly & Company in Finance, MR CI, Portfolio, Marketing, CNS Business Unit and Strategy roles. In addition, he has a strong background in FMCG marketing with Pepsi-Cola and General Management.
He has an MBA from Manchester Business School, UK and a BBA from the University of Houston, USA.

At Lifescience Dynamics we offer a full range of international pharmaceutical consulting services. We aim to reduce risk by providing world-class solutions to your business management challenges. We use a three-step strategy when undertaking your consultancy projects.
First, our experienced experts help you identify the salient industry factors and avoid any implementation pitfalls to ensure the scope of the consultancy is clear and realistic.
Second, our multi-disciplinary team apply cutting-edge, holistic business thinking to your problems and supply regular updates on our progress.
Third, we deliver recommendations for strategic action, supported by detailed commercial and market data and information refined to meet rapidly changing conditions.
Our consulting services specialise in ‘lifecycle management’ from new product development to loss of exclusivity (LOE). We use specially developed processes to help us analyse market conditions and develop strategic options to mitigate the LOE curve. For full details of our services visit www.lifesciencedynamics.com