The Programme

Day One Tuesday 18 November 2008

08:30

Registration

09:00

Opening remarks from the Chair

Forecasting within the context of pharma

09:10

Jennifer L. Castle
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Department of Economics
Nuffield College
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD

Economic forecasting in uncertain environments

• Examining the main causes of forecast failure, defined as a large and sustained forecast error, in economic forecasting
• Identifying sudden, unanticipated large changes in mean as the main cause of forecast failure and considering its implications for forecast theory
• Developing robust methods to forecast when large shifts occur

Focusing on pricing developments and prediction

09:50

Gabor Berta
Director
Pricing and Market Access
ASTRAZENECA

Overcoming the challenge of getting the price right

• Examining major challenges in strategic product pricing
• Learning how to measure changes in price for accurate forecasts
• What are the proven practices of making the most accurate predictions?

10:30

Morning refreshments

11:00

Dr Rainer Walenta
Director
Global Pricing and Reimbursement
SOLVAY PHARMACEUTICALS

Analysing the impact of different pricing and reimbursement systems on the pharma industry

• Discussing the consequences of international reference pricing on local reimbursement
• Understanding the launch strategy, launch sequence and parallel trade
• Will a unified European pricing structure be the final outcome?

Achieving forecasting accuracy for new products

Rafaat Rahmani
President
LIFESCIENCE DYNAMICS LTD

How to choose market share techniques for a new product forecast

• Quick’n’dirty: implementing order of entry models to forecast early phase products
• Get expert opinions on analogue-based market share and Monte Carlo simulation and find out how these can benefit your forecasts
• Discover the benefits of fixed product and variable product profiles via market research departments
  

Gary Johnson
Managing Director
INPHARMATION

Forecasting the uptake of new brands and new classes

• Best practice: how the best pharma companies do it
• Worst practice: frequently committed errors and how to avoid them
• The best and simplest approaches for developing the best forecasts
• Examples of famous pharma cases
  

Mercedes Diz
Head
In-Licensing
ALMIRALL

Forecasting for in-licensed products

• Inherent challenges of business development projects
• Screening of opportunities, pre-confidentiality, due diligence and full analysis
• Role of forecasting in the negotiation process

Achieving forecasting excellence

The principles of Total Market Forecasting

• What is Total Market Forecasting?
• Why Total Market Forecasting?
• What are the underlying principles?
• How can these principles be applied for different local market dynamics and data availability?
• Presenting a European case study in an excel free environment

Afternoon refreshments

Marcel Fischer
Head
Supply Chain Management
SIEGFRIED ACTIVES

Sales funnel: a concept to optimise forecasting for projects and products at Siegfried Actives

• Establishing a life-cycle management strategy
• Steering the supply chain with proper sales planning
• Supporting the processes with integrated tools
• Aligning the forecast with reality
• Lessons learned

Lars Nordmann
Head of Forecasting
SCHERING-PLOUGH

Simultaneous versus sequential event valuation

• Understand that traditional forecasting software, commercial or customised, typically evaluates market events in a sequential fashion
• Learn why the order-induced valuation bias can easily yield misleading, inconsistent or even directionally wrong conclusions
• Discover a simple analytic fix that eliminates the order bias and provides a sound mathematical basis for event valuations

Werner Gorath
Group Manager
Market Research
NYCOMED

Integrating market research into corporate decision-making

• Identifying the best methodologies in market research
• Strengthening strategic planning by aligning market research and forecasting data
• Effective analysis and management reporting
• Creating an integrated business intelligence approach

Medium-term sales forecasting in a stable market environment

• Understand how Daiichi-Sankyo has created a major product line in the European hypertension market and delivered accurate forecasts
• Discover how to establish a new forecasting process in order to increase the forecast accuracy across the European business
• Understand how to successfully align headquarters as well as affiliate level forecasting

Roger Holdsworth
Associate Director
Portfolio Analysis
UCB

The importance of forecasting data for portfolio analysis and management across the product lifecycle

• Discussing portfolio analysis and management and its importance in decision making within the pharma industry
• Examining the value and validity of the analytical data - highly dependent upon the quality of the input
• Understanding how, for later phase projects in particular, precise and accurate revenue forecasts are central to value analysis
• Looking at the importance of consistent approaches to forecasting when comparing projects within the portfolio
• Focusing on portfolio analysis and management across the development cycle with particular emphasis on the forecasting input

Closing remarks from the Chair and farewell tea and coffee