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The Workshop |
Pre-conference workshop
Forecasting from product discovery to withdrawal
Tuesday 13 November |
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Led by FUTURION |
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| About the Workshop: |
| Join Dr Robert Carbone and Walter Colosante from Futurion as they get to the bottom of improving forecasting capabilities throughout the lifecycle of a pharmaceutical product. In this unique workshop you will get the opportunity to join other like-minded individuals seeking to reduce the level of inaccurate forecasts across their portfolio of products. This intimate setting will allow you to ask questions and share your own forecasting challenges and successes in the presence of 15 to 20 other professionals. |
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| Agenda |
| 08:30 |
Delegate registration and coffee |
| 09:00 |
Session 1: Characteristics of the industry from the following perspectives
- Product
- Market
- Regulatory
- Supply chain
- Financial
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| 10:00 |
Session 2: Forecasting requirements
- New products
- In-line products
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| 11:00 |
Morning coffee break |
| 11:20 |
Session 3: Forecasting parameters
- Time horizon
- Values vs assumptions
- Metrics (patients, turnovers, units, kilos, etc)
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| 12:20 |
Lunch |
| 13:20 |
Session 4: Introduction to epidemiological (patient-based) forecasting
- Key elements
- Concept of population and disease segmentation
- Prevalence or incidence, diagnosed, drug-treated and compliance
- Tutorial example
- Translating patients to units
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| 14:20 |
Session 5: Forecasting after launch
- Historical trend and extrapolation: the forecasting toolbox
- Learning from the M-competitions
- Selecting the best method
- Forecast evaluation: stability/accuracy
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| 15:20 |
Afternoon coffee break |
| 15:40 |
Session 6: Bridging patient-based modelling and sales extrapolation
- Separating assumptions from baseline values
- The concept of a fixed planning baseline
- Structuring a typology of assumption
- Total market forecasting/ tutorial example
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| 16:40 |
Close of workshop |
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| About the session leaders: |
| Dr Robert Carbon |
Dr Robert Carbone received his doctorate from Carnegie-Mellon University. He co-developed the Carbone-Longini AEP filter, which contributed to the application of adaptive filtering methods in forecasting. He has guided the development of the FUTURCAST system. A gold standard in the pharmaceutical industry, the system evolved from a PC application software to a fully integrated Assumption-based Oracle platform. Dr Carbone has made the academic tradition of research and development a hallmark at Futurion. |
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| Walter Colasante |
Walter Colasante is a Senior Advisor to and Associate of Futurion Pharmaceutical Group. He has a background in medicine and also holds an MSc in biochemistry and an MBA. Before this, he spent over ten years in the pharmaceutical industry in clinical development, brand management, project management, disease management and strategic marketing of Bristol-Myers Squibb, Allergan, and Novartis. |
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