The Programme

DAY ONE: WEDNESDAY 14 NOVEMBER 2007
08:30		Registration and coffee
09:00	Walter Colasante Associate FUTURION	Opening remarks from the Chair
FORECASTING IN CONTEXT
09:10	Jerry Rosenblatt Global Practice Leader, Forecasting and Opportunity Analysis IMS MANAGEMENT CONSULTING	Predicting 2008: a global pharma market forecast Identifying key numbers and regions Rebalancing the market: assessing dynamics and drivers Assessing events and 'wildcards' Understanding managerial implications: the impact on pharma manufacturers
09:50	Dr Rainer Walenta Director of Global Pricing and Reimbursement SOLVAY PHARMACEUTICALS	Analysing the impact of different European pricing and reimbursement systems on the pharma industry Discussing the consequences of international reference pricing on local reimbursement Understanding launch strategy, launch sequence and parallel trade Will a unified European pricing structure be the final outcome?
10:30		Morning refreshments
PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF FORECASTING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
11:00	Paul Goodwin Professor of Management Science UNIVERSITY OF BAT H	Making the best use of management judgement in forecasting The benefits of using management judgement in forecasting Biases associated with forecasts based on management judgement How to identify when the use of judgement is appropriate How to make better judgements How to integrate management judgement with statistical forecasts
11:40	Dr Robert Carbone CEO FUTURION	Integrating strategic and operational forecasting in an enterprise system What is the foundation of strategic and operational forecasting? When are the forecasting principles applied? What are the technical and alignment characteristics? What are the advantages of working in an Oracle environment? How are patients converted into units with assumptions preserved?
12:20		Lunch
13.30		ROUND TABLE AFTERNOON
		Delegates will be able to attend three one-hour roundtable discussion groups from a selection of key topics. Each session will be chaired by an industry expert who will facilitate an exchange of opinions, essential experiences and learning related to an aspect of forecasting.
	Rainer Walenta Director of Global Pricing and Reimbursement SOLVAY PHARMACEUTICALS	1. Debating the influence of the pricing and reimbursement system
	Mercedes Diz New Products Manager ALMIRAL	2. Challenges faced in new product forecasting
	Remy Steinbrecher Deputy Director, Demand Process Development SANOFI PASTEUR	3. Techniques for forecasting in an uncertain world
	Jerry Rosenblatt Global Practice Leader, Forecasting and Opportunity Analysis IMS	4. Choosing the best forecasting approach to apply to given situations
	Kuntal Baveja Director of Forecasting NOVARTIS	5. Strategic forecasting tools and methodology
16:50		Closing remarks from the Chair
17:00		End of day one



DAY TWO: WEDNESDAY 15 NOVEMBER 2007
08:30		Registration and coffee
09:00	Kuntal Baveja Director of Forecasting NOVARTIS	Opening remarks from the Chair
FORECASTING IN PRACTICE: TRANSLATABLE CASE STUDIES AND METHODOLOGIES
09:10	Kuntal Baveja Director of Forecasting NOVARTIS	Strategic forecasting: imperative to achieving a competitive edge Introduction to strategic forecasting and its role in enterprise strategic planning and decision-making Identifying, measuring and exploiting hidden opportunities and existing gaps to gain the competitive edge Methods and tools for supporting strategic forecasting
09:50	Gary Johnson Managing Director INPHARMATION	Taking the con out of conjoint analysis Understanding conjoint analysis and its popularity as a means of forecasting the impact of product profiles on sales Revealing the complexities: are more complex techniques better than their simpler counterparts? Assessing the weaknesses of the technique: inability to handle co-prescription, promotional and launch order effects Removing all the unproductive complexity surrounding conjoint analysis to produce more accurate, transparent forecasts
10:30		Morning refreshments
11:00	Werner Gorath Group Manager Market Research ALTANA PHARMA	Forecasting the market impact of small modifications to a pharmaceutical product Not every launch is a breakthrough Spontaneous perception of the modification (new package) Handling of the new package Main advantages compared to other packages Current prescription patterns of the relevant market Expected future prescription patterns and the change in market share after launch
11:40	Peter Knight Principal Analyst WOOD MACKENZIE	Sales-based forecasting Putting sales-based forecasting in to context Understanding when to use sales-based techniques: the main advantages and disadvantages Creating a robust sales-based forecast – comprehensive, transparent, interactive
12:20		Lunch
13:30	Remy Steinbrecher Deputy Director, Demand Process Development SANOFI PASTEUR	Forecasting in an uncertain world What risk factors are there in the forecasting process? How to choose the risk variables Using the Monte Carlo Approach to capture the risks Using historical data to predict future risks
NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING IN FOCUS
14:10	Rafaat Rahmani Founder and President LifeScience Dynamics	How to choose market share techniques for a new product forecast Quick’n’dirty forecast for early phase products Expert opinions Monte Carlo simulation Analogue based market share Fixed product profile via market research Variable product profile via market research
14:50		Afternoon refreshments
15:20	Robert Slooves Marketing Director, Neurology MERCK SERONO INTERNATIONAL S.A.	Applying best practice techniques to new product planning Assessing the potential effect of regulations and other variables on product success Understanding the challenges of forecasting in new therapy areas Predicting the viability of the un-launched product
15:50	Mercedes Diz New Products Manager ALMIRAL	Challenges in new product forecasting Major uncertainties in new product forecasting From pre-clinical to pre-launch: benefits and shortfalls of forecasting models Internal communication: how best to communicate new product forecasts
16:30		Closing remarks from the Chair and Champagne prize draw
16:40		End of conference